Since the second half of 2013, methanol has bid farewell to the "cold winter" and started a wave of rising trend. It is expected that the focus of methanol price will continue to move upward in 2014, and the futures index will operate at 3000-4000 yuan / ton.
in 2013, the focus of methanol price moved up significantly, especially since July, a wave of crazy rising market has emerged. The basic logic of the rise in methanol price is that the production of new projects stimulates the rapid growth of demand, while the growth of supply lags behind the expansion of demand. The market is out of stock, and the price rise is inevitable. It is expected that the pattern of methanol overcapacity has begun to reverse, the supply gap will exist for a long time in the next few years, and the price will rise in a trend.
emerging demand becomes the main force
methanol consumption in 2013 was about 36 million tons, an increase of about 15% over 2012, a large part of which was driven by emerging demand. In the next few years, with the commissioning of methanol to olefin project and the release of methanol fuel demand, methanol consumption will maintain a high-speed growth. So far, six sets of coal (methanol) to olefin units have been put into operation in China, with a total capacity of 2.7 million tons / year. According to rough estimation, the coal (methanol) to olefin unit needs to purchase 3 million tons of methanol. From the perspective of completed, under construction and planned projects, by 2016, there will be at least 25 manufacturers operating methanol to olefin projects with a production capacity of about 13 million tons / year, mainly vertical integrated methanol to olefin projects. If it is calculated that 1 ton of olefin requires 3 tons of methanol, the methanol to olefin unit will require a total of 39 million tons of methanol after all the projects under construction are put into operation.
currently, methanol blended gasoline is in the gray area, but the actual consumption is not low. Since March this year, some coal producing provinces, such as Shanxi and Shaanxi, have actively promoted methanol gasoline. With the in-depth promotion of methanol fuel in various provinces and cities across the country, the future demand growth will be guaranteed.
capacity growth lags behind demand growth
in 2012, China's methanol production capacity was 51.491 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.64%, and it is estimated that the production capacity in 2013 will be 60 million tons. In the next few years, the domestic methanol production capacity will continue to grow. From the perspective of raw materials, the capacity expansion of coal to methanol is limited, and the capacity of gas to methanol is gradually shrinking.
at present, China's natural gas to methanol production capacity exceeds 10 million tons, but due to policy restrictions, limited natural gas use and rising prices, it is expected that the natural gas to methanol production capacity will gradually shrink in the next few years. In terms of policy, the national development and Reform Commission promulgated the natural gas utilization policy in October 2012, which lists "new or expanded natural gas to methanol projects" and "natural gas to coal to methanol projects" as prohibited categories, thus making it almost impossible to increase the production capacity of natural gas to methanol.
methanol production capacity from natural gas is gradually shrinking. Methanol production from coal will be the mainstream of new production capacity in the future, and its methanol market share will accelerate. However, coal to methanol requires a lot of water resources, and the pressure of environmental protection is great, so the expansion speed of production capacity will be limited. The policy also does not support the large-scale commissioning of coal to methanol units, especially the commissioning of some small units. In April 2011, NDRC [2011] No. 635 document prohibited the construction of methanol to olefin projects with an annual output of 500000 tons or less and methanol projects with an annual output of 1 million tons or less. This regulation has greatly raised the entry threshold of coal to methanol, and the new production capacity is strictly limited.
the capacity of methanol production from coke oven gas in China is relatively small, and the scale of a single unit is basically 100000-300000 tons. Only large and medium-sized coking plants with a capacity of more than 600000 tons are suitable for construction and production, so it is difficult to increase the capacity significantly in a short time.
China's imported methanol mainly comes from the Middle East, accounting for about 80% of the total import. Except for Iran, there is no large-scale investment plan for new units in the Middle East. However, Iran is affected by sanctions, and all planned units are stranded due to capital and equipment restrictions. Therefore, the impact of methanol from the Middle East is relatively small.
in other countries outside the Middle East, judging from the current plan of new units, there are not many new capacity in 2014, which is far lower than the growth rate of China's capacity, and its impact on China's imports is small. In general, the growth of methanol production capacity lags far behind the growth of demand, resulting in a long-term supply gap.
